Allianz Global Investors
Our Managers Commentary News & Media
Mutual Funds
Managed Accounts
Closed-End Funds
Offshore Funds
529 Plans
Premier VIT
Value Add

Management Firm Commentary  
 
RCM Market Review & Outlook
E-mail Print
RCM Global Ecotrends Monthly Commentary-August 2008
RCM Capital Management
09/01/2008

Volatility was more restrained in August, and as the market rallied this fed through to the performance of the environmental technology universe. The on-going fall in the oil price over the month also continued to have no negative impact on environmental technology stocks. Relative to the broader market the fund performed broadly in line, however relative to the fund’s benchmark, the FTSE ET50, it underperformed.

 

The main reason behind this underperformance was due to our overweight position in a number of industrial stocks, including Outotec, Siemens, ABB and Atlas Copco. Despite these adverse share price movements, we continue to maintain our positive stance towards these names and believe the fundamentals remain intact. Our underweight to the solar sector also impacted negatively where the biggest negative contributions came from strong moves in LDK Solar and Solarworld. Conversely, the fund benefited from not holding stocks such as Schnitzer Steel and Sims Group, which in our view continue to look expensive and continued to have sell off as steel and scrap steel prices fell.

 

In the solar sector, results for Q2 were robust globally. This was as expected, buoyed by the exceptional conditions in Spain. Many of the names also raised 2008 guidance. More importantly, all companies cited continued strong demand, with pre-sold contracts at 20-50% in 2009. Share-price reactions, however, were relatively muted as investors looked to an uncertain 2009 as the industry potentially enters into oversupply (Q-cells guided for more than trebled production output by 2010 vs. 2007). Renewable Energy Corporation (REC) also announced that it will be constructing production sites in Quebec in stages (beginning 2010), with up to four plants of similar scale to Moses lake (6500 MW). We view this development as encouraging, as REC leverages its capabilities as a cost leader in solar silicon production. We continue to believe that upstream players will be the most resilient to the impending industry shake-out characterised by declining average selling prices (ASPs) at the cell and module levels.

 

Towards the end of August, sentiment turned quickly, especially ahead of the Valencia solar conference in early September, with some short-term investors hoping to get positive news from the conference. Whilst we remain cautious on downstream solar, sentiment towards the industry in general is improving due to increased utility-scale interest as evidenced by the surprise announcement from Sunpower on two utility contracts (FPL and Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E)) with one of these (PG&E) at 250MW. PG&E's order for 800MW (500MW for thin-film solar and 250MW for polycrystalline solar) of solar power for the US, is the largest ever. The utility scale contracts are indeed a big positive for the solar sector. We know that utilities are very interested in putting solar PV in their portfolio as part of their Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) requirement. These PV farms are due to come on-stream in 2010, however project commencement is contingent on the passing of the US Investment Tax Credit (ITC) by year end. We continue to be confident with our underweight solar stance given a lack of catalysts to year-end and await the Q1 2009 results for insight into the industry's development.

 

In the wind sector, Vestas’ Q2 results were positive; the company re-iterated full-year EBIT margin guidance despite raw materials inflation. Crucially, Vestas management indicated a 30% rise over the consensus order backlog, including a sharp up-tick in US demand. The very high level of demand for wind power has benefited wind turbine manufacturers, where barriers to entry are formidable. Uncertainty over the extension of the US Production Tax Credit (PTC) remains, however, we believe only the timing and not the actual extension is variable. Unlike the solar industry which suffers from a lack of visibility, wind power is much more predictable as evidenced in the favourable reaction of the share prices of wind turbine manufacturers Gamesa and Vestas to increased order books and stable margins. We continue to be comfortable with our overweight position in wind and see the extension of the US PTC as the next positive catalyst.

 

In the water sector, water chemicals (Nalco) continued to remain highly volatile, mainly because of uncertainties regarding raw material input costs and pricing power of the suppliers in an overall declining market environment. A similar picture can be drawn for the construction and semiconductor related providers such as Pall Corp and Kurita Water, which face a further declining housing market and semiconductor downturn.

 

Overall, water as an investment theme continues to attract media attention as Sydney experienced its driest month in May since records began, again sparking calls for additional desalination plants. So far North America and Asia lead in terms of the number of newly issued water projects, but India also recently committed to additional investments in water infrastructure to ensure further growth of its economy and sufficient supply for its agriculture.

 

In the pollution control sector, performance was mixed. Stocks with end market exposure to consumer related products such as automotives were volatile. Whereas stocks with more stable, secular end market exposure such as waste to energy, waste disposal and testing were either flat or up in the month.

 

During the month, we made the following transactions in the fund. We slightly trimmed our position in Wacker Chemie. The company reported its Q2 results which were robust and demonstrated that the business is well positioned to benefit from the tight polysilicon market. In aggregate however, we are starting to become cautious on the outlook for the company’s other divisions. We raised our position in Suez Environment as an alternative to Veolia Environment, in which we sold the remainder of our position due to a lack of catalysts for the business. Suez Environment also has a more attractive valuation to Veolia Environment. Continuing with our cautious stance towards solar, we sold out of positions in Yingli Green Energy (a Chinese solar module manufacturer), Q Cells and Solarworld.

 

We continue to reiterate our positive long-term outlook for the environmental technology markets as the focus on the cost of energy, environmental pollution, climate change and ageing infrastructure will be some of the themes driving the need for the deployment of environmental technology solutions.




Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of any mutual fund carefully before investing. This and other information is contained in the fund´s prospectus and summary prospectus, if available, which may be obtained by contacting your financial advisor. Click here for a complete list of the PIMCO Funds and Allianz Funds prospectuses and summary prospectuses. Please read them carefully before you invest or send money.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is not an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. It is presented only to provide information on investment strategies and opportunities. The material contains the current opinions of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Statements concerning financial market trends are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities.

 

GrassrootsSM Research is a division of RCM. Research data used to generate GrassrootsSM Research recommendations is received from reporters and field force investigators who work as independent contractors for broker-dealers. Those broker-dealers supply research to RCM and certain of its affiliates that is paid for by commissions generated by orders executed on behalf of RCM's clients.

 

Allianz RCM Global EcoTrendsSM Fund should be considered as only one element of a complete investment program. The Fund's shares may be subject to relatively high levels of risk and volatility and should be considered a speculative investment. While the Fund may invest in companies of any size, it may often invest a substantial portion of its assets in securities of smaller companies, including newly formed and early stage companies. The Fund may invest without limit in illiquid securities. Investors should note that the Fund is designed to provide exposure to a relatively narrow group of sectors and should be considered as only one element of a complete investment program. The Fund is non-diversified and may focus its investments in a small group of companies or industries. The companies in which the Fund invests may have limited operating histories and/or small market capitalizations. The Fund's substantial exposure to non-U.S. securities, including emerging markets securities, also involves special risks, including political and economic risk and the risk of currency fluctuations; these risks may be enhanced in emerging markets. The Fund may also use derivative strategies for investment or hedging purposes. Use of these instruments may involve certain costs and risks such as liquidity risk, interest rate risk, market risk, credit risk, management risk and the risk that a fund could not close out a position when it would be most advantageous to do so. Portfolios investing in derivatives could lose more than the principal amount invested in those instruments.

 

The FTSE ET50 Index is comprised of the 50 largest environmental technology companies by market capitalization (approximately $650 million to $9 billion) from a global universe of 400 pure-play environmental technology companies. Unless otherwise noted, index returns reflect the reinvestment of income dividends and capital gains, if any, but do not reflect fees, brokerage commissions or other expenses of investing. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

 

MW = Megawatt and PV = Photovoltaics

 

The Allianz Funds are distributed by Allianz Global Investors Distributors LLC, 1345 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10105-4800, www.allianzinvestors.com, 1-888-877-4626. Investment Products: NOT FDIC INSURED / MAY LOSE VALUE / NOT BANK GUARANTEED

 

Click here to view the Fund's top ten holdings and current sector weightings. All holdings are subject to change.

 

Click here to view the Fund's current month-end performance.


Advisor Login