| Double-digit returns for equities and credits in the quarter propelled the markets to recent highs. The rally was constructive for the markets, as it continued across all industries and qualities. The fundamental picture for most companies has exceeded expectations from six to nine months ago. Quarterly earnings reports have been generally better than expected, but to say growth has been exceptional would be an exaggeration. As the market has looked forward, the picture has brightened. With inventory rebuilding, and simple economic improvement from overly depressed levels, companies are performing better due to more than a year of cost cutting.
Convertible Specific Comments
The Merrill Lynch Convertible Index rose for the three-month period. Similar to the second quarter, the improvement in the prices of corporate bonds continued to be the primary driver of convertible returns, given the low delta and high average premium of the market.
Speculative grade issuers led performance again in the quarter and smaller- capitalized companies continued their outperformance. As discussed in the last commentary, even though equity markets are higher, credit has been the primary driver of convertible returns. As the capital markets opened up and access to capital improved, credit spreads tightened dramatically, driving all corporate bond prices higher.
All industries contributed to the index return, with many adding double-digit percentage gains. Leading industries included Airlines, Materials and Energy. Again, the broad market attribution was notable. Nearly all of the bond-like or busted convertibles rose in price, regardless of the companies’ operating fundamentals. Many of those issues rarely trade; thereby, even if an issue was identified as a good candidate for purchase, the liquidity was not there to build a position.
While few in number, weaker-performing industries included Utilities, Healthcare and Consumer Staples.
New issuance was below expectations in the quarter, with new issuers raising just $8.3 billion. Many companies accessed the corporate debt markets instead of the convertible markets in order to avoid shareholder dilution at depressed stock prices.
High Yield Specific Comments
The high yield market seems to be back. The combination of performance, new issuance and demand has returned the market to full functionality. The Merrill Lynch Master II Index returned double digits for the three-month period. By way of comparison, the high yield market outperformed the ten-year Treasury return.
The highest risk issuers led performance again this quarter. Additionally, the most striking new element to market conditions was the surge in lower quality new issuance. The trend now is to refinance old subordinated notes of generally lower quality issuers with senior secured first lien notes. These notes are pari passu (of equal seniority) with the banks if any bank debt exists. This type of transaction immediately reduces the credit risk of the issuer. By eliminating near-term maturities, the issuer benefits and the buyer has a better claim on assets by moving to a senior part of the capital structure. Credit risk in the market has been reduced across the board, due to high yield issuers having access to capital.
Leading industries included Publishing, Insurance and Broadcasting. The notable link connecting these industries is the generally poor operating performance among many of the issuers. Again, the broad market attribution was notable. Much like last quarter, the contribution to return was tangible across several hundred issues. As with the convertible market, many of those high yield issues rarely trade; therefore, even if an issue was identified as a good candidate for purchase, there was no liquidity to build a position.
New issuance was robust in the quarter. One hundred twenty-one deals priced, raising $52 billion in proceeds for issuers. Year-to-date, 265 issues have been priced, raising more than $120 billion. Looking at the 2009 use of proceeds, 78.6% has been for refinancing.
The ratio of upgrades to downgrades increased to 1.1:1, with 72 upgrades and 71 downgrades. The default rate continues to decline, ending the quarter at approximately 8.8% on a par-weighted basis. Distressed debt, as measured by price (below 50% of par), has dropped to 2.2% of total high yield debt outstanding and only 8.2% now trades below 70% of par.
Domestic Equity & Option-Specific Comments
Continuing a theme set in the second quarter, the broad equity markets were up double digits in the third quarter. The S&P 500, the Russell 1000 Growth , and NASDAQ were all up over the same period.
The equity rally was broad based and most industries yielded positive returns. Technology, Consumer Discretionary and Staples were the standout industries that drove the Russell 1000 Growth index higher. Smaller- capitalized companies outperformed the larger-capitalized companies as investors shifted to riskier assets.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index® (VIX®) continued its downward trend through the quarter as the equity markets marched higher and investor confidence grew. The index averaged mid twenties volatility over the time period compared to previous quarters’ mid-thirties volatility.
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