Commodities Gain as Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities Continue Rally

The Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Total Return Index gained 4.25 percent for the third quarter and is up 9.06 percent year-to-date, as commodities continued to benefit from a general rise in risk asset prices, a weaker U.S. dollar, and fundamental strength in the industrial metals, precious metals, and softs sectors. The energy sector ended the quarter down moderately as languishing natural gas and crude oil prices weighed on the sector. Natural gas continues to be plagued by overproduction, while oil moved lower on concerns over slowing demand. Industrial metals benefited from continued strong import demand from China, particularly for copper, in addition to improved industrial production data in the developed world. Gold and silver rallied over the period with a weaker U.S. dollar contributing to gains in addition to strong underlying jewelry demand providing support for gold at lower price levels. The softs sector, particularly sugar, posted strong returns with sugar futures gaining over 32 percent during the quarter. Prices were positively supported by a disappointing monsoon season in India and excessive wet weather in Brazil both hampering production. Grains prices were hurt by expectations for increased production in the coming crop year for corn and especially wheat.

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) gained 3.08 percent during the third quarter as represented by the Barclays Capital U.S. TIPS Index. Real yields declined across most of the maturity spectrum with the exception of the very long end of the yield curve, where real rates rose only modestly. Real coupon and positive inflation accruals, despite cyclical disinflationary pressures, also helped returns. TIPS outperformed comparable maturity nominal bonds overall despite underperformance for long-dated issues.

TIPS yields declined most for intermediate maturities, reflecting a reversal of second quarter’s largest increase in yields for this portion of the real yield curve. Despite cyclical disinflationary pressures, all maturities rallied given market expectations of slower growth amid worsened U.S. unemployment figures. Long-dated real yields declined the least due in part to investors pricing in slower inflation, resulting in their preference for long-dated nominal Treasuries. As a result, TIPS underperformed their long-dated counterparts; however, they outperformed all other maturities.

Breakeven inflation (the level of inflation where a TIPS return “breaks even” with that of a nominal Treasury or more simply, the difference in nominal yields and real yields) ended the period slightly positive for a majority of the curve. The 15-year sector and beyond posted lower breakeven inflation levels as markets priced in lower longer-term inflation expectations.

Economy Continues to Stabilize; Abundant Slack Remains

Financial markets and the broader economy continued to stabilize during the third quarter after the extraordinary events of last year. Policy initiatives - such as the Federal Reserve’s purchase of mortgage and Treasury securities, the government’s support for consumer finance markets and near-zero short term rates - helped revive risk appetites and were the major factors behind enhanced stability. Two key programs were extended during the third quarter.

The Fed committed to complete its $1.25 trillion program to buy mortgage-backed bonds and extended the end date of the program to March 2010 from December 2009. Massive purchases of mortgages from this program, roughly two-thirds complete by quarter-end, helped hold down mortgage rates and supported the still fragile housing market. The Fed and the U.S. Treasury also announced the extension of the Term Asset-backed Securities Loan Facility, or TALF program, which provides financing to investors buying consumer asset-backed securities (ABS). Originally set to expire in December of this year, TALF was extended through March 2010 for consumer ABS.

Manufacturing and housing data showed improvement in the third quarter, suggesting that the recession was close to an end. Even so, substantial slack remained in the economy, leading the Fed to announce that it would keep the federal funds rate near zero “for an extended period.” The unemployment rate moved closer to 10 percent, making any revival in consumer spending highly unlikely. Businesses continued to draw down inventories, albeit at a slower rate than earlier in the year. Industrial capacity utilization hovered near record lows at below 70 percent, discouraging new investment. Policymakers faced with these dismal fundamentals were in no position to contemplate withdrawal of stimulus programs any time soon.

Riskier Assets Extend Gains Despite Fragile Economy

Valuations of corporate bonds, mortgages and asset–backed securities continued to richen in the third quarter. These gains were supported less by fundamentals than by positive technical conditions and government policies that helped push investors out of cash and toward higher yielding, riskier assets. The following summarizes fixed income sector returns:

• Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) continued their powerful rally during the third quarter, outperforming like-duration Treasuries. The success of the Fed’s MBS Purchase Program compressed mortgage yield premiums to the narrowest levels ever seen when measured versus interest rate swaps. Non-agency mortgages also rallied, helped by the lack of new issuance over the last two years and increased liquidity in the market. Consumer ABS enjoyed strong gains versus like-duration Treasuries, owing to robust demand for TALF assets and the re-emergence of unleveraged cash investors such as pension funds and insurance companies.
• Corporate bonds, especially high yield credits, were among the best performing fixed income assets during the quarter, buoyed by highly favorable market technicals. Credit premiums continued to tighten and approached levels last seen in 2007 as fund flows into corporate credit were very strong and the supply of available bonds began to contract slightly after years of growth. These circumstances benefitted lower-rated credits the most. Performance was strongest in the financial sector, which gained from improved asset valuations, a continued steep yield curve and increased fee-based income as capital markets revived.
• Municipal bonds outperformed Treasuries by a wide margin during the quarter. Municipal yield ratios relative to Treasuries moved closer to historical averages after widening dramatically last year. As with corporate bonds, technical factors were positive in the municipal market. Inflows into municipal funds remained strong amid heightened expectations for future tax increases. Municipal new issue supply was relatively light as issuance was diverted into taxable Build America Bonds. 
• The rally in emerging market (EM) bonds continued in the third quarter. These securities outperformed Treasuries against a backdrop of strong fiscal and monetary stimulus by most EM countries to counter the worldwide recession. Credit premiums tightened on most bonds amid the restoration of risk appetites for the sector.
• Yields on government bonds fell modestly in most developed markets during the quarter as concerns about the extent of global economic recovery lingered. Interest rate volatility generally decreased from recent periods. Among developed markets, U.S., U.K. and Eurozone bonds fared the best.

Review of CommodityRealReturn Investment Approach: PIMCO uses derivatives linked to commodity indices to gain exposure to the returns of the commodity markets, without investing directly in physical commodities. PIMCO fully collateralizes these positions with fixed income securities, mainly Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) that are actively managed with the objective of outperforming the cost of gaining commodity exposure (to deliver excess return) and to provide an additional inflation hedge beyond commodities. There is no guarantee that this objective will be met. Comments below focus on the bond market, especially TIPS, and our fixed income strategies.

The PIMCO CommodityRealReturn Strategy Fund outperformed its benchmark for the quarter year to date. PIMCO’s emphasis on attractively priced high quality assets, especially those with government support, was beneficial for performance for the quarter and year to date

The following strategies helped third quarter returns:

• Commodity structural alpha strategies; particularly alternate roll strategies and calendar strategies
• TIPS outperformed the T-Bill collateral assumed within a commodity index as real TIPS yields declined
• Above-index duration overall, stemming partially from tactical nominal bond exposure, as nominal interest rates declined
• Exposure to inflation-linked bonds in Japan; real yields declined amid continued support by the ministry of finance
• An emphasis on shorter term rates in the US, implemented predominantly via money market futures, which experienced gains as the Fed indicated short maturity rates would remain low longer than markets had expected 
• Positions in Agency mortgage pass-through securities; valuations of these bonds benefitted from continued purchases by the Fed
• Modest exposure to bonds of financial companies, which continued to outperform the broader corporate market

The following strategies were negative for quarterly returns:

• Underweight TIPS exposure, as real yields rallied amid slower economic growth expectations
• An emphasis on nominal bonds in the Eurozone, as Inflation-Linked Bonds (ILBs) outperformed nominals in the region

Recovery To Be Weak in 2010 After Temporary Boost

PIMCO believes that the most likely outcome for the U.S. economy will be a weak recovery in 2010 after a temporary boost in the latter half of this year. On the downside, the U.S. could slip back into recession sometime next year. Emerging economies, especially China, should continue to grow at a faster pace than the developed world, helped by aggressive stimulus policies. The rationale for our forecast is outlined below:

• Limits to U.S. Growth – A slower pace of inventory drawdown by businesses and positive effects from stimulus programs should support growth in the third and fourth quarters of this year, but this boost will not be sustainable. The reasons include excessive levels of consumer debt and an expected increase in savings to work these levels down; a stubbornly high unemployment rate; and weak business investment in the face of record lows in capacity utilization.
• Muted Monetary Policy – PIMCO expects the Federal Reserve to retain near-zero policy rates for some time. Even so, the impact of low rates and the Fed’s huge liquidity injections may be largely muted by overleveraged consumers’ reluctance to borrow.
• Weak Recoveries in Europe, U.K. and Japan – The rest of the developed world is expected to face similar challenges with the sustainability of demand into 2010. In Europe, large public debts and economic linkages to the U.S. and U.K. are likely to impose constraints on recovery. Japan’s recovery will face limits arising from its reliance on U.S. demand for its exports, especially autos, and weak capital spending, as capacity utilization rates remain low.
• China to Grow Faster – China is likely to grow far faster than more developed economies. Its fiscal stimulus has been especially large to compensate for a decline in exports. A surge in infrastructure investment has readjusted China’s GDP back toward its critical growth target of 8 percent.
• Bifurcated Emerging Markets – Emerging economies overall are showing signs of a rebound. PIMCO believes that EM economies that are more reliant on external demand – such as Korea, Mexico and Russia – will face greater headwinds for sustained recovery. Countries driven more by internal demand – including Brazil and India – would appear to be more resilient.
• Tame Inflation – Substantial excess capacity in labor and product markets should keep inflation low over a cyclical timeframe. Over the longer run, inflation risk may be heightened by the massive liquidity the Fed has injected into the financial system. For now though, transmission of that liquidity into the broader economy will continue to be constrained by strong demand for cash among financial institutions and consumers eager to pay down debt.

Commodity production and distribution capacity has suffered from years of underinvestment. This should continue to be a supply constraint for some time. Countries such as China and India continue to export excess manufacturing capacity abroad. As a result, the standards of living within these countries should continue to improve. This will likely have the effect of increased demand for durable goods and better food, providing support for raw material and commodity prices. Exposure to commodities reduces the risk associated with unexpected changes in the rate of inflation and is one of the important diversification benefits of this asset class. PIMCO’s outlook for TIPS is that they continue to be attractively priced, both on an absolute basis and relative to nominal Treasuries. The outlook includes low growth rates in developed economies while longer-term inflationary pressures build, owing to stimulative government policy, growth in developing economies, secular commodity infrastructure constraints, and a longer-term weaker dollar caused by the twin U.S. deficit. More importantly, over a secular timeframe the total return on longer duration TIPS has the potential to exceed the assumed T-Bill return on commodity derivatives

Review of CommodityRealReturn Investment Approach: PIMCO uses derivatives linked to commodity indices to gain exposure to the returns of the commodity markets, without investing directly in physical commodities. PIMCO fully collateralizes these positions with fixed income securities, mainly Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) that are actively managed with the objective of outperforming the cost of gaining commodity exposure (to deliver excess return) and to provide an additional inflation hedge beyond commodities. There is no guarantee that this objective will be met. Comments below focus on the bond market, especially TIPS, and our fixed income strategies.

Tactically Scale Back Risk as Valuations Richen

PIMCO will seek to tactically reduce risk exposures in portfolios following powerful rallies in non-Treasury sectors driven primarily by favorable technicals and government policy. We believe this approach will protect portfolios in the event the economy slips back into a recession and should allow PIMCO to reinvest at more attractive valuations later.

• Real and Nominal Interest Rate Strategies – We will target above-index duration via nominal bond exposure as there could be downward pressure on longer maturity nominal yields should the economy weaken over the next year. PIMCO will also retain money market futures positions in the U.S., as we anticipate that the Federal Reserve will tighten more slowly than markets expect.
  • U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) exposure will likely remain underweight, as disinflationary pressures should weigh on inflation prints causing TIPS to underperform nominals.
  • We also plan to retain nominal bond duration exposure relative to real duration in the Eurozone, as disinflationary pressures should continue to cause inflation-linked bonds (ILBs) to underperform, particularly in France.
  • Despite continued deflation in Japan, we will likely maintain exposure to Japan ILBs, which could experience real price gains as the current level of relatively high real yields does not reflect our expectations of continued slow growth.
• Agency Mortgages – PIMCO’s significant exposure to high quality Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) has recently been strongly positive for returns. With MBS valuations having richened substantially and the Fed’s mortgage purchase program slated to end in March of next year, PIMCO will likely continue to unwind these positions as we expect cheapening of Agency MBS.
• Reduce Corporate Bond Holdings – We also will look to trim corporate bond positions into the current rally, especially those that have appreciated most such as senior bonds of high quality banks. However, we will retain exposure to recession-resistant sectors such as telecom and utilities as well as energy.
• Emerging Markets and Currency – PIMCO will take modest exposure to high quality EM credits such as Mexico, Brazil, Korea and Russia, which have relatively little debt coming due in the near future and a high level of reserves. We will take similar positions in EM currencies, with the exception of Russia, and take modest exposure to the Chinese yuan, anticipating that faster growth in these economies should allow their currencies to gain versus the U.S. dollar.
• Municipals – We will continue to sell tax-exempt municipal bond positions, especially longer-dated issues, which have rallied along with other non-Treasury assets.