U.S. equities continued their steep ascent amid growing evidence of an economic recovery and stronger than expected corporate profits. The S&P 500 Index gained during the third quarter. Risk tolerances increased during the quarter. Investors continued to move money out of cash and low yielding money market mutual funds into higher-yielding, riskier investments in the equity, debt, and currency markets.
Stocks climbed higher despite doubts surrounding the rally. Many investors had anticipated a correction given the magnitude and speed of the market recovery that began in March. However, the S&P 500 Index ended the quarter near its highest level for the year.
Broad based gains extended across all sectors in the S&P 500 Index. Financial stocks led the third quarter rally one year after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Some of the biggest decliners during the financial crisis posted the largest third quarter gains, including American International Group. Industrials, materials, consumer discretionary, and technology sectors were also among the best performing sectors. Defensive utilities, health care, and consumer staples segments joined energy and telecommunication services as the relative laggards. Emerging market equities outperformed developed markets and in the U.S., small caps outperformed large caps and value outperformed growth.
Stocks appreciated as the economy showed broad signs of improvement. The majority of economic data released during the quarter came in above expectations. Manufacturing reports were largely positive, a slew of housing reports showed signs of stabilization, and consumer confidence improved overall. While the global recession appears to be over, the labor market is still weak and a disappointing manufacturing report and a consumer confidence report led to modest market declines during the last two trading days of the month.
Companies cut costs aggressively during the economic downturn. These efforts helped over 70% of companies in the S&P 500 Index report second quarter profits that beat consensus earnings estimates. Analysts’ expectations were low going into the quarter and have been steadily revised higher. Following a two year streak of profit declines, analysts are now expecting a steep earnings recovery.
Mergers and acquisitions picked up after a two year decline in activity. Major deals were announced including Walt Disney’s purchase of Marvel Entertainment and Dell’s acquisition of Perot Systems. Low interest rates, improving credit markets, and high levels of corporate cash provided a favorable environment for deal making.
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