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Bernanke's Four Point 'To-Do' List
08/25/2009

This blog was originally published on ftalphaville.ft.com on August 25, 2009.

 

President Obama’s announcement reappointing Fed Chairman Bernanke for a second four-year term does, and should, command broad based support.

 

Bernanke has played a major role in designing and implementing policies that averted an even larger global destruction of jobs and living standards around the world. Indeed, crisis management has defined Bernanke’s first term. His second term promises to be equally challenging as it will be defined by four major issues.

 

First, Bernanke will have to navigate the “how” and “when” of exiting from an unprecedented set of unconventional Fed policies. As Nouriel08/ Roubini detailed in Monday’s Financial Times, this is no easy task. Too early an exit would push the U.S. back into recession; and the more likely outcome of overstaying in the current policy regime would risk inflation down the road and undermine the proper functioning of some markets.

 

Second, Bernanke will have to defend the institutional integrity of the Fed. Politicians have woken up to the fact that the institution has enormous power to conduct the analytical equivalent of fiscal policies that normally fall under the domain of the executive and legislative branches of governments. The natural political tendency today is to limit the future ability of the Fed to respond in this way. While understandable, ill-designed and politically-driven reactions could result in more harm than good.

 

Third, Bernanke will have to revamp the operational focus of the Fed in the context of a major regulatory reform effort. Up until now, the focus has been on whether, in the balkanized world of U.S. regulators, the institution should be the chief regulator. Bernanke will have to also lead the Fed into an operational regime where asset prices are better incorporated in the design of the policy reaction function. Indeed, if the erosion of the U.S. global standing continues, Bernanke may also have to worry more about the impact of exchange rate changes.

 

Fourth, Bernanke will have to play an important role in the multi-agency, and hopefully cross-border design of better crisis prevention measures. Together with other policy makers, he will have to strike the right balance between prudential steps that curtail systemic risk and steps that would excessively undermine the channeling of credit to productive activities.

 

None of these issues is easy to deal with on a standalone basis; and together they constitute a significant policy challenge. They will define Bernanke’s second term, requiring from him a tremendous degree of intellectual rigor, political savvy, steadfast commitment, and leadership. Based on the achievements of his first term, Bernanke is well placed to address yet another set of difficult challenges.


Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of any mutual fund carefully before investing. This and other information is contained in the fund´s prospectus and summary prospectus, if available, which may be obtained by contacting your financial advisor. Click here for a complete list of the PIMCO Funds and Allianz Funds prospectuses and summary prospectuses. Please read them carefully before you invest or send money.

Past performance of the markets is no guarantee of future results. This is not an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. It is presented only to provide information on investment strategies and opportunities.

 

The material contains the current opinions of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Statements concerning financial market trends are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended as recommendations to purchase or sell securities. Forecasts are inherently limited and should not be relied upon as an indicator of future performance.

 

Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. This material was reprinted with permission from The Financial Times Limited Copyright 2009. Date of original publication August 25, 2009.

 

© 2009. Allianz Global Investors Distributors LLC, 1345 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10105-4800, www.allianzinvestors.com, 1-888-877-4626


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